if he continues to run in all three series, then yes, of course he has a shot at 200 victories - across all three series. he's only been racing 3 or 4 FULL years in the cup and nationwide series and only partial schedules in the truck series - and already he has 31 wins (8 cup, 15 nationwide, 8 truck), and most of them (17) have come since the beginning of 2007, 10 so far this year - and we're only 1/3 of the way through. over the past three years he has averaged running 68 races a year in the three series total. at that clip, he could surpass 200 overall victories BEFORE he's 30, but that's not all that likely. he's hot now, but he'll have some down time and slumps just like everyone else.
he did make a comment, half-jokingly, about retiring at 30, but what's he going to do then? how many drivers have had plans of retiring at 40 and still couldn't get out of the cars, much less at 30.
and i'm not sure about him wanting to race F1 at 30. does someone have a source on that? i've read and heard from him on interviews that he will be involved in an F1 test and a stock car demonstration with toyota in japan during the off-season, but that he has no plans on leaving nascar any time soon.
as for whether or not it would be as special as Richard Petty's 200 wins - well, i think it would be as special, but in a very different way. petty was the king of the cup. kyle would be what, the king of versatility? i dunno what he'd be considered by then, but it would be a special accomplishment. he's already the winningest "three series" driver of all time in a couple of different ways - he's won in all three series for four years in a row (only two other drivers won in all three series in a year - and only for one year). he's also the only driver to win multiple times in each of the three series in a single year.
good question.